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Employment situation for November 2026

Dec 4, 2026 · Jobs

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This week’s prints

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Odds board

Jobs

Employment situation for November 2026

Fri, Dec 4, 2026, 8:30 AM EST

Updated Nov 12, 2:21 AM EST

Kalshi

  • ≤ -25,0005.0%
  • -25,000 to 02.5%
  • 0 to 10,0008.0%
  • 10,000 to 20,0003.5%
  • 20,000 to 30,0003.0%
  • 30,000 to 40,0004.5%
  • 40,000 to 50,0006.0%
  • 50,000 to 60,0000.0%
  • 60,000 to 70,0008.0%
  • 70,000 to 80,0003.0%
  • 80,000 to 90,0007.5%
  • 90,000 to 100,0006.5%
  • 100,000 to 125,00013.5%
  • Above 125,00029.0%

Polymarket

  • 100k to 125k10.5%
  • 50k to 75k17.0%
  • 150k+26.0%
  • 75k to 100k20.0%
  • 25k to 50k5.0%
  • <25k18.0%
  • 125k to 150k7.0%

Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.

FOMC

FOMC decision December 9, 2026

Wed, Dec 9, 2026, 2:00 PM EST

Updated Nov 12, 2:21 AM EST

  • Cut 50bp or more
    Kalshi0.5%
    Polymarket0.3%
  • Cut 25bp
    Kalshi0.5%
    Polymarket0.3%
  • No change
    Kalshi4.5%
    Polymarket3.6%
  • Hike 25bp
    Kalshi85.5%
    Polymarket86.5%
  • Hike 50bp or more
    Kalshi10.5%
    Polymarket9.6%

Percents are the latest captured yes price before the decision.

CME FedWatch

CPI

CPI for November 2026

Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:30 AM EST

Updated Nov 12, 2:21 AM EST

Kalshi

  • ≤ -0.3%0.5%
  • -0.3% to -0.2%8.5%
  • -0.2% to -0.1%16.5%
  • -0.1% to 0.0%43.0%
  • 0.0% to 0.1%21.0%
  • 0.1% to 0.2%7.5%
  • 0.2% to 0.3%1.5%
  • 0.3% to 0.4%0.0%
  • 0.4% to 0.5%0.0%
  • Above 0.5%1.5%

Polymarket

Market data not captured.

Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.

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